UK Small Business Data In June Suggests Sales Recovery - But Jobs Continue To Decline

With August set to be a significant turning point in the UK’s economic recovery as the furlough scheme begins to unwind, new data from hundreds of thousands of SMEs shows that small business employment in Yorkshire and The Humber dropped 4.3 per cent in June and fell 8.4 per cent since April when compared to the same periods last year.

The data has been released by small business platform Xero ahead of the reduction of the Government’s Job Retention Scheme from 1st August, and follows a call from the National Institute of Economic and Social Research to extend the scheme to next year to avoid the risk of 1.2 million job losses by Christmas.

The National Picture
The analysis from Xero, and AlphaBeta (part of Accenture), released today reveals trends relating to the recovery of the UK’s small business economy following the impact of COVID-19, showing tentative improvements in revenue and payment times.

Based on anonymised and aggregated data from hundreds of thousands of Xero customers in the UK, Xero’s Small Business Insights (SBI) showed signs of recovery, with small business revenue improving by 11 per cent in June. Although revenue was still down on last year, it improved from 29 per cent down in May (YoY) to 18 per cent down in June (YoY).

The data shows the construction (12 per cent down in the year to June, compared with 41 per cent down in May) and manufacturing (3 per cent down in June, compared with 24 per cent in the year to May) sectors saw the most revenue improvement in June. The hospitality (51 per cent down in the year to June, compared with 63 per cent in May) and arts and recreation (37 per cent down in June, compared with 48 per cent in May) sectors experienced the lowest revenue improvement.



The length of time it took for small businesses to receive payments on invoices has shown tentative signs of improvement, decreasing by 1.1 days between May and June but remaining 5.7 days higher than pre-crisis levels.

Despite signs of recovery being seen in revenue figures, job losses have continued. Employment dropped another 4 per cent in June, marking an overall decline of 8 per cent since March 2020. Most UK regions shed jobs, with the East Midlands (-7.7 per cent m/m) and the North West (-6 per cent m/m) experiencing the biggest drops in employment between March and June.

Jobs declined further across nearly all industries in June too, except information media and telecommunications which saw a small increase of 0.5 per cent between May and June.



How the UK data compares internationally

The data shows the different stages of economic recovery between the UK, New Zealand and Australia - comparing how small businesses were impacted in each region. The UK, which started to ease restrictions later than the other two countries, is yet to reach a trough in job losses. In comparison, New Zealand and Australia have seen jobs rise from the troughs seen during the crisis. New Zealand showed the strongest signs of recovery of the three countries so far, despite having the largest drop in revenue when lockdowns were introduced. Its revenues have rebounded strongly to now be similar to June 2019 levels.



Gary Turner, UK managing director of Xero, commented: “This data suggests initial signs that the UK’s small business economy is starting to recover from the crisis. However, small businesses are yet to show signs of re-hiring in June, with many still subject to restricted trading conditions. We’re hoping the continued relaxation of restrictions in July will be reflected in improved hiring and revenue figures as small business confidence rebuilds.

“Despite some cautious signs of recovery, small businesses will need more guidance than ever as government support like the furlough scheme and bounce-back loans start to wind down. We’ll be working with our small business customers to help them navigate this next phase - ensuring they get the support they need both from their accountants and the government. ”