As we approached the end of 2025, the latest data showed Richard Watson, internal sales manager at Net Zero Buildings a national decline in pupils enrolling in primary schools, mainly driven by low birth rates. While London remains the region with the largest decline in student numbers, Yorkshire and the Humber is specifically referenced as an area that has experienced a large drop in enrolments since 2017/18.

In recent years, the general perception in the UK has been that schools are oversubscribed. National birthrates peaked in 2010 and led to larger year groups starting at primary school between 2014 and 2018, with local authorities opening new schools and expanding provision to meet demand. But since then, the national birth rate has slowed dramatically.

Having previously worked as a teacher and headteacher, I have seen first-hand the real-world impact of these statistics on pupils, teachers and the local community.

Pupil numbers falling puts pressure on schools as they face declining demand for services and less financial security, as funding is largely based on the number of students in attendance. If the education sector doesn’t plan accordingly, there is a risk that schools in rural and semi-urban areas, with smaller cohorts, may face mergers, reorganisation, or in the worst cases, closures. Research has suggested that low birth rates in England could lead to the closure of 800 primary schools by 2029.

With pupil numbers in schools expected to drop by nearly 400,000 over five years, local school leaders will need to plan effectively and proactively.

One problem estate manager face is that, as these numbers fall, many schools will be left with empty or partially used spaces. Even with fewer pupils on site, schools still have to pay to run and maintain their buildings, and heating, lighting, cleaning and repairs cost much the same whether classrooms are full or not. At the same time, large buildings continue to require regular upkeep even when significant areas are rarely used.

Rather than seeing spare space on site as a limitation, schools can view it as an opportunity to find innovative ways to repurpose underused classrooms while also helping schools maintain or enhance their income levels. This approach is already reflected in the government’s school-based nursery programme, which converts surplus classroom space into nursery provisions, helping schools offset financial pressures while supporting local childcare needs.
Local schools can develop similar initiatives. For example, additional space could be used to integrate specific creative and wellbeing areas for pupils, or to host additional art or music classes. Alternatively, the space could be opened to the community and used for meeting rooms, sports activities, or as a hub for parent workshops on topics like nutrition.

To make the most of underused space, estate managers must take a proactive approach, and having foresight into the construction and design of buildings is critical. Increasingly, schools are adopting modular solutions, which can be reconfigured, expanded and relocated far more easily than traditionally constructed buildings. Solutions like modular classrooms and multi-use halls are purposefully designed to be highly adaptable to meet the changing requirements of school leaders, allowing managers to adjust capacity up or down without major disruption. For example, classrooms can be merged, split or moved depending on enrolment and other changes, optimising space and reducing wasted capacity.

At the same time, estate managers must take a holistic approach to ensure that evolving demands and priorities are met. Schools are navigating declining birth rates, but also, rising numbers of students with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND), and new policy requirements around inclusion and sustainability following the government’s target of all education estates reaching net zero by 2050. As schools invest in new classrooms and facilities, there must be a focus on reducing carbon footprint and futureproofing resources.

School leaders must give careful attention to decarbonisation and any new buildings constructed should offer enhanced thermal efficiency, and incorporate renewable and smart technologies, such as solar panels, rainwater harvesting systems, and intelligent plug sockets. At the same time, schools must ensure that specialist resources for SEND students are appropriately allocated or consolidated, and that inclusion and student wellbeing remains central.

As schools are required to meet targets across several critical areas, futureproofing estates will require significant investment. Local, smaller schools should be aware of funding opportunities offered by authorities and central government. For example, capital grants to support school modernisation, energy efficiency improvements, and SEND provision. Exploring joint funding with local authorities, partnerships with community organisations, or private sector collaborations could be a wise option.

Declining pupil numbers present challenges for schools around funding and underutilisation. However, if school leaders can strategically invest in sustainable, adaptable infrastructure, while balancing additional demands around inclusion and SEND, schools can thrive and remain at the heart of the community.

Going into 2026, forward-thinking planning, flexible design, and targeted investment will be critical to maintain thriving, adaptable schools that meet the evolving needs of Yorkshire’s students and communities.