business
Opinion
Market Analysis: Asos, Primark, Ørsted, Sainsbury's, BT,JD Wetherspoon, M&S
ASOS: 'Back to Fashion' Strategy and Test & React Program Enhance Profitability; Focus Shifts from Sales Growth to Profitability. Primark: Sales growth despite weather and supply hain issues; More room to expand in the UK stores location and new formats. Ørsted: Q3 is typically the highest performing quarter; US projects remain prone to cancellation and delay. Sainsbury's: Set to Capture Market Share from Asda and Morrisons AmidRising UK Labor Costs; Focus on Promotional Pricing to Drive Volume Growthand Reduce Cost Base. BT: Experts Forecast Flat Growth Amid Shrinking Market, FiberCompetition, and Copper Transition. JD Wetherspoon: Labour Costs to Significantly Impact Cost Base; Clear Propositionn May Provide Some Volume Protection Against the Wider Market; Limited Price Growth Potential. M&S Clothing and Home: Regaining Customer Trust through Value andSustainability; Food Offering Helps Attract Steady Foot Traffic to Clothing & Home.
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Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Asos, informed by insights from industry experts:
"Asos is executing its "back-to-fashion" strategy by shifting its focus from dresses to a more balanced mix of casual wear, athleisure, and everyday styles. This change not only enhances profitability but also allows for a wider range of trends and storytelling in marketing. By refining its offerings, Asos aims to attract a diverse customer base, from aspiring teenagers to style-conscious thirty-somethings.
"Asos has shifted its focus from rapid sales growth to profitability, reducing stock and emphasizing products with higher contributions. While this may hurt short-term sales, our experts believe it’s a smart move for long-term sustainability, especially in challenging markets like the US and Germany, where returns can be high.
"The Test & React program shows promise, potentially reaching 30% in some categories. Our experts predict that full-price sales will increase; however, this growth is limited to specific product types such as leisurewear, constraining overall growth potential.
"Shein has significantly impacted market share, while M&S and Next are becoming increasingly competitive in the UK market, potentially affecting Asos's position.
On Primark, Yanmei Tang, comments: "The joint venture between Topshop and Topman and Bestseller's Heartland could leverage economies of scale and expand market reach, especially in China."
"Our experts anticipate a further sales recovery in the UK by 2025 if weather and supply chain issues improve. Primark’s sales growth has continued despite poor weather and rising competition from online retailers like Shein and Temu, as well as a shift in consumer spending toward M&S and Next. These competitors offer a broader fashion range, faster delivery, and higher quality, which are beginning to impact Primark’s model.
"Primark still has room to expand its UK footprint, with potential for new locations and store relocations, similar to its Birmingham flagship. The brand is actively exploring new formats featuring collaborations with Greggs and Disney, as well as enhanced in-store experiences, like cafes and beauty services, to boost dwell time and encourage repeat visits. While UK expansion remains viable, Primark may prioritize international growth, particularly in the U.S., as this region offers significant potential.
"Primark’s move to introduce pricier, high-end items and collaborations risks alienating its budget-savvy base, pushing it closer to rivals like M&S and Next. Some of Primark’s higher-priced items have even landed on clearance racks, blurring its value image.
"Primark’s click-and-collect solution feels more like a defensive response to Temu and Shein than a true sales driver. Our experts are skeptical it will boost order size since Primark’s magic lies in the “in-store surprise” that encourages extra purchases. Without this impulse, click-and-collect could turn into a quick “grab-and-go,” which may limit its impact unless Primark finds ways to get customers browsing in-store after pickup."
In the wind power space, Louis Knight, Analyst at Third Bridge says on Ørsted
“Ørsted seems to be slowly but surely steadying the ship. After a very turbulent few years, the global clean energy developer did a great job in capturing margin in third quarter results - something we have not seen for some time. However it’s worth noting that Q3 is typically the highest performing quarter and free cash flow today is heavily in the red having been negative for six straight quarters now. Non of this is comes as surprise. It remains clear that there are certainly challenges and risks ahead. Despite Ørsted performing well in the UK, taking a disciplined approach to latest project under construction, Hornsea 3, it is the largest one to date and incorporates key technology never deployed before by Ørsted. Additionally, Ørsted’s US projects remain prone to cancellation, delays and construction set-backs and growth over there will be largely dependent on continuous supportive policy.”
In the grocery market, Orwa Mohamad, Analyst at Third Bridge comments on Sainsbury’s:
"Sainsbury’s has successfully gained market share from discounters through initiatives like Price Lock, Aldi price match, and the Nectar loyalty program. Experts predict that Sainsbury’s will continue to capture market share over the next 12 months, mainly from Asda and Morrisons, thanks to its clear competitive value and personalized pricing strategies. There's also a notable opportunity to focus on convenience, especially with Asda and Morrisons expanding in that space.
"However, consumers now expect food prices to continue decreasing as inflation stabilizes, while rising labor costs in the UK, including an increase in the National Living Wage, put pressure on pricing strategies.
"To manage its cost base, experts recommend that Sainsbury’s maintain its promotional pricing strategy to boost volume growth and attract new customers. Increased sales volumes can help lower labor costs, improve distribution efficiency, and streamline product flow, ultimately reducing overall operational expenses.
"Experts also highlight that effective availability management and supply chain optimization are key areas where AI can enhance efficiency and cut costs. While electronic shelf labels could significantly improve operational efficiency, high implementation costs have hindered their widespread adoption."
In the telecommunications space, Albie Amankona, Analyst at Third Bridge comments on BT:
"BT's focus on connectivity may limit growth opportunities. Our experts expect flat growth over the next 12-24 months. The company faces significant headwinds, including a shrinking telecom market and stiff competition from new fiber providers that threaten BT’s traditional marketshare. The transition from high-margin copper products to lower-margin FTTP services also creates a revenue gap as BT accelerates its copper switch-off strategy.
"On the bright side, BT could benefit from short-term gains by selling copper assets and achieving cost savings through digital transformation initiatives. While the new FTTP services have slimmer margins, increased connection charges in select regions may stabilize revenues.
"The B2B segment is projected to decline in low single digits, pressured by regulatory pricing constraints at Openreach, limiting its competitiveness against urban-focused "Altnets." Declining demand for legacy copper lines and heightened fiber competition further intensify these challenges. To adapt, BT is leveraging its Division X initiative to explore new markets, investing in 5G private networks and IoT solutions while testing smart devices under the EE brand.
"In the UK’s 5G market, BT holds a strong position, primarily through EE, and is recognized for its leadership in deploying small cells. However, the potential merger between Three and Vodafone could disrupt the competitive landscape by consolidating spectrum and reducing Vodafone's network expansion costs, putting BT at a disadvantage.
"BT's operational efficiency initiatives, including reducing its workforce and number of exchanges from 6,000 to under 1,000, are expected to help maintain 39-40% EBITDA margin."
For the pub market, Alex Doran, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding JD Wetherspoon: "
"Our experts anticipate moderate growth of just 2-3% in this sector over the next 3-5 years. JD Wetherspoon’s clear proposition could provide some volume protection or growth vs the wider market. Price growth potential is limited, as the company has already undergone considerable price increases in the past few years.
"Labour costs pose another major challenge, particularly with rising minimum wage and national insurance rates impacting their cost base. Over 90% of Wetherspoon's workforce, comprising more than 30,000 employees, is affected by these changes.
"Despite these hurdles, there are opportunities for Wetherspoon as independent pubs and leased sites close down, potentially allowing for expansion in areas where these venues have shuttered. Additionally, as cities welcome employees back to offices and tourism rebounds, Wetherspoon could capitalize on these trends. However, the long-term focus of younger generations on health and wellness, with many choosing not to drink, presents a concern.
"Our experts say Wetherspoon's limited portfolio diversity could also hinder its adaptability in an evolving market that increasingly values experience-led offerings and changing consumer preferences."
Regarding M&S CLothing & Home, Yanmei Tang, Analyst at Third Bridge, writes:
"M&S is regaining British customers' trust in clothing by focusing on value-for-money and sustainability. They’ve improved at quickly reacting to fashion trends, thanks to a clearer understanding of their customers and faster lead times that allow for testing and quick restocking of popular items.
"Home presents a huge opportunity in the UK, with few competitors offering affordable, well-designed furniture. Our experts believe Home, like Food, can attract customers who haven’t considered M&S Clothing in a while.
"One of M&S's biggest advantages in the Clothing & Home segment is its strong store portfolio in prime locations, combined with its popular Food offerings, which help attract steady foot traffic.
"Our experts suggest that M&S should adopt a more selective marketplace strategy, focusing on curated offerings that add clear value rather than onboarding brands indiscriminately. They emphasize the need for M&S to have a strong rationale for its marketplace approach, asking which third-party brands truly align with their goals. There are also opportunities for M&S to expand into branded sports footwear, outdoor wear, and beauty products, filling product gaps and strengthening its appeal."
Third Bridge is a global primary research firm that interviews more than 6,000 internationally recognised industry experts and business leaders a year to compile 360-degree market intelligence for institutional investors. www.thirdbridge.com