Poundland: Price advantages over supermarkets have faded;Rationalisation of store estate is required; Clothing is the biggestopportunity for margin growth but will take at least 2 years to build. Asda: New strategy will take time; loyalty programme has lost its appeal. Dick’s Sporting Goods: Benefits from Potential Acquisition of Foot Locker; Biggest Threat from D2C Brands. Meituan: Full-scale delivery war is a battle meituan can’t lose; Subsidy intensity is expected to ease gradually. BYD: Price war expected to stabilise and shift toward technologycompetition; inventory challenges remain. Affirm: Klarna’s IPO; Near-Term Growth Hinges on Apple Pay and Amazon Partnerships, Affirm Card, and Expanding BNPL into Everyday Purchases. Old Navy and Gap are crucial to growth as tariffs squeeze margins; Banana Republic and Athleta need reinvigoration



After interviewing a number of executives, Orwa Mohamad, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Poundland, informed by insights from industry experts:

Our experts say Poundland has lost much of the price advantage that once defined it. Supermarkets have sharpened their pricing and leaned heavily into own-label ranges, leaving Poundland squeezed. The chain built its reputation on branded goods at unbeatable prices, but that unique selling point has faded. Meanwhile, rivals such as Home Bargains have stepped up with stronger assortments and more efficient models.

The store estate adds another layer of complexity. Poundland operates across high streets, retail parks and shopping centres, but each format behaves differently in terms of customer mission. Our experts note that this divergence creates inefficiencies and forces higher labour costs in certain sites, suggesting there is scope for rationalisation.

Rising costs in the UK retail sector also weigh heavily. Minimum wage and national insurance increases affect Poundland as much as its peers, but the impact is magnified by an estate that is less efficient than competitors’ more streamlined formats. While others have invested in automated distribution and supply chain efficiencies, Poundland remains exposed to labour-intensive processes that erode margins.

Looking ahead, clothing and general merchandise represent the biggest opportunities for margin growth. However, our experts stress that rebuilding a viable clothing brand will take time. Establishing the right supply chain and product offer is at least a two-year project, and for a new owner, this is likely to be the most demanding part of any turnaround.

In the UK supermarket space, Orwa Mohamad, Analyst at Third Bridge also comments on Asda: Our experts say Asda is likely to keep losing market share through the rest of 2025, with no real turnaround expected until at least the third quarter of 2026. The strategy being rolled out is viewed as sensible, but it will take time to resonate with customers and does not provide quick wins.

The decision to bring back Rollback pricing on a large number of items may not deliver the immediate lift management is hoping for. Our experts note that while everyday low prices appeal in theory, shoppers often respond more to promotions that feel tangible and exciting. Compounding this, Asda’s loyalty programme has lost much of its appeal after investment was deliberately redirected to pricing. This has left customers comparing it unfavourably with more rewarding schemes at Tesco and Sainsbury’s.

Asda’s ambition to keep prices 5 to 10 percent below competitors is another challenge. Our experts estimate it could require an investment of £300m to £400m, at a time when the business is also burdened with multimillion-pound monthly expenses linked to its IT separation from Walmart. These pressures leave little room for missteps.

Beyond price, store standards remain a concern. Our experts describe Asda’s estate as tired and in need of significant capital investment. Shoppers increasingly expect better cleanliness, availability, and service, and without these improvements, price investment alone may not be enough to win them back.

Natasha Nair, Analyst at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Dick’s Sporting Goods: Our experts say Dick’s Sporting Goods stands to benefit meaningfully from its acquisition of Foot Locker. One of the clearest advantages is the chance to bring new customers into the fold. Foot Locker attracts sneaker enthusiasts who might not have shopped at Dick’s before.

For Foot Locker, the deal offers a much needed reset. Our experts point out that Dick’s is bringing in one of the most disciplined merchant teams in the sector, which should help Foot Locker clean up inventory and boost profitability. Margins at Foot Locker have lagged peers, but under Dick’s leadership there could be 8-10% improvement over the next two to three years. On top of that, Dick’s already has one of the strongest partnerships with Nike, and this acquisition could help Foot Locker regain some of its footing with the brand.

Still, competition looms large. The biggest threat is not another retailer but the direct to consumer strategies of brands like Nike, Adidas, and Hoka. These companies increasingly prefer to sell straight to customers, which could squeeze wholesale partners over time.

In the TMT space, Jamie Chen, VP, Sector Analysts at Third Bridge comments on Meituan: China’s food delivery sector has entered a full-scale delivery war. Our experts say this is a battle Meituan cannot afford to lose. Rivals Taobao and JD.com see food delivery less as a core business and more as a strategic entry point to transform their platforms from pure e-commerce into all-scenario consumer ecosystems.

Heavy subsidy spending continues to weigh on the industry, eroding unit economics. Our experts estimate that JD.com and Taobao are likely burning even more cash than Meituan. Subsidy intensity is expected to ease gradually after the third quarter before platforms shift their focus to unit economic discipline next year as budgets tighten.

Meituan’s advantage lies in its entrenched logistics network and technology edge. Its “super brain” system leverages data to optimise routes, shorten delivery times, and reduce costs. With higher-value users and stronger city-level distribution, Meituan benefits from a flywheel effect that improves returns over time. By contrast, JD.com and Taobao lack the logistics density and struggle to guarantee stable incomes for their couriers, weakening their ability to scale.

Our experts add that the bubble in China’s food delivery market is not about to burst, even as subsidies are trimmed. While overall order volumes may dip, more than 100 million new users have been added this year. Supply quality has risen, and the market is no longer concentrated in tier-one and tier-two cities. Growth is now increasingly visible in lower-tier markets and in new consumption habits, from late-night snacks to afternoon tea. The surge in couriers has further strengthened the system’s ability to meet this broader demand.

In the automotive space, Rosalie Chen, Analyst at Third Bridge writeson BYD: Our experts say the next three to five months will mark a period of recovery and price stabilisation for the Chinese EV market after the turbulence caused by BYD’s time-limited fixed price policy in May. The initiative, intended to clear inventory, backfired by eroding dealer profitability and unsettling the market’s pricing system. Customers who had paid higher prices felt short-changed when they could not cancel locked-in orders, fuelling a wave of dissatisfaction. The resulting volatility has left car buyers more hesitant, particularly as residual values for new energy vehicles remain low.

Sales are expected to contract compared to previous periods, and our experts warn the outlook for BYD meeting its ambitious full-year targets appears pessimistic. Dealers across the country are sitting on deep inventories.

Looking ahead, our experts believe the focus of competition may gradually shift away from price wars toward technology. Customers are increasingly drawn to features that deliver tangible added value, and BYD is well positioned here. Our experts speculate that its God’s Eye assisted driving technology could soon be built directly into mass-market models without a significant bump in pricing.

A further catalyst could come from BYD’s work on megawatt fast charging and next-generation batteries that extend vehicle range. If these technologies reach scale and are paired with updated pure EV models, the growth rate could accelerate sharply.

Kevin Kennedy, Analyst at Third Bridge remarks on Affirm: Two questions dominate investor conversations on Affirm. First, the market is waiting on Klarna’s delayed IPO. Second, BNPL players have scaled rapidly since the pandemic, but unlike banks and card issuers with decades of credit cycle experience, they have yet to prove resilience in an economic downturn.

Affirm isn’t just chasing profitability, it’s also widening its reach beyond its U.S. stronghold into markets like Canada and Europe through partnerships with Shopify and FIS. Our Experts highlight that Affirm’s near-term growth hinges on Apple Pay and Amazon partnerships alongside the rapid scaling of the Affirm Card, which is key to unlocking the offline market where most spend still occurs.

While online penetration is largely maxed out, the card could reposition Affirm as a long-term credit card alternative, though rewards and loyalty mechanics are still lacking. Relative to Klarna’s larger but lower-AOV(average order value) user base, Affirm is viewed as stronger in higher-ticket, longer-tenor loans with better credit quality, leaving it better positioned if the macro softens. The biggest existential risk is losing Amazon or Apple Pay, while the largest upside lies in expanding BNPL into everyday purchases like groceries, gas, and rent.

Klarna has put pressure on Affirm this year, notably winning over the Walmart contract. A successful IPO would not only give Klarna fresh capital to fund expansion and product innovation, but it would also elevate competitive visibility for the BNPL category, potentially putting pressure on Affirm to demonstrate accelerating growth, disciplined credit performance, and sustainable unit economics in order to defend its premium positioning in the U.S. market. According to our experts US BNPL GMV (gross-merchandise volume) growth is expected to continue at 10-15% through 2025-2026 and Klarna and Affirm are best positioned to capture this share.

On Gap, Natasha Nair, Analyst at Third Bridge, says: Old Navy and Gap remain central to the group’s growth strategy, especially as tariffs squeeze margins. Our experts believe these two brands are well-placed to capture budget-conscious consumers with affordable basics, while Banana Republic and Athleta may take a back seat for now.

Athleta, in particular, needs what one expert described as a “moment of reinvigoration” to regain momentum in a highly competitive activewear market. Leadership and product refreshes could be critical in bringing the brand back into the conversation with its core audience.

For years, the company overloaded shelves with too many SKUs, which forced it into a cycle of heavy discounting. Now, through initiatives such as GapStudio, the brand has shifted toward a tighter, more curated product line that feels relevant and distinctive.

The company has also improved efficiency by consolidating product teams across the portfolio, rather than letting each brand operate in isolation. Our experts say this unified approach is key to restoring profitability after a long stretch of inconsistency.