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P.ublished 13th September 2025
business
Opinion

Market Analysis: Primark & Magnum Capital Markets Day

Primark: Click & Collect stabilises sales but hasn’t become a growth engine; tariff concerns and US expansion continue with more store openings. Magnum Capital Markets Day: Driving international growth via emergingmarket consumption and premiumisation; unlocking innovation and executionthrough separation from Unilever; navigating competition from global andlocal rivals amid cocoa price headwinds.

Alex Smith, Global Sector Lead at Third Bridge made a series of remarks regarding Primark, informed by insights from industry experts:

Our experts say Primark’s Click & Collect in the UK hasn’t turned into the sales engine the company once hoped for. Instead of bringing in new shoppers, it mostly helps stop existing sales from slipping further. The service only covers a limited range, which makes it less attractive, and the extra handling involved means it’s more expensive to run than simply selling in store.

Tariffs are a likely headache for the US business. Roughly half of Primark’s products still come from China, and while the company has tested suppliers in places like Bangladesh, Vietnam and South America, none can yet match China’s scale or supply chain maturity. Passing higher costs on to customers in the US is difficult too, given the relentless price pressure from Shein and Temu.

In the US, growth is still mostly about opening more stores. Shoppers tend to love the experience, often rating it above Walmart or Target, but the rollout has been uneven. Opening stores in far-flung states like Florida and Ohio doubled distribution costs across the entire US network. The scattered approach has piled on logistics costs and led to mismatched demand across regions.

Our experts say Primark in the US would be better served by focusing expansion on specific regions rather than spreading too thinly. Concentrated growth would enable more efficient marketing, lower transport expenses, and a tighter grip on costs.

In the consumer goods space, Alex Smith, Global Sector Lead at Third Bridge comments on Magnum Capital Markets Day

Our experts say ice cream is one of the most compelling growth stories in the food sector today. With consumption expanding in emerging markets like India and strong premiumisation trends across Europe and North America, the category is set to outperform other snack segments. The appeal lies in both accessibility and indulgence, as consumers are increasingly willing to pay more for products with distinctive ingredients, textures, and experiences.

The separation of Magnum from Unilever is expected to unlock real value. Experts highlight that as part of Unilever, Magnum often struggled to secure resources against more profitable categories. As an independent company, The Magnum Ice Cream Company (TMICC) can focus on sharper innovation, stronger execution, and faster rollout of premium acquisitions such as Grom and Yasso. Replicating artisanal trends around flavour and texture, once pioneered by smaller independent brands, is now firmly within reach for a global player of Magnum’s scale.

Competition, however, is intensifying. Global confectionery giants like Ferrero, Mars, and Mondelez have expanded into ice cream, leveraging powerful brands such as Ferrero Rocher and Oreo. Products like Froneri’s Nuii have shown that challengers can take meaningful share, especially in the premium stick format where Magnum has traditionally led. At the same time, low-cost local producers in emerging markets continue to provide entry-level options.

Headwinds remain, particularly from elevated cocoa prices, which are squeezing industry margins. Yet experts see longer-term opportunities for TMICC through premiumisation, product mix improvements, and better supply chain efficiencies.



Third Bridge is a global primary research firm that interviews more than 6,000 internationally recognised industry experts and business leaders a year to compile 360-degree market intelligence for institutional investors. www.thirdbridge.com